What Makes You Think You Know What You Think You Know?

 

As many of you know my primary research is on how well juries understand scientific evidence. One of the things my research as shown me is that slightly less than 15% of the general population understands complicated scientific data and methodology. The rest of the population guesses. When the decision is binary (50% chance of being right or wrong) and all input factors are equal, this generally means that the correct answer is reached by the majority. But the possible answers are not always binary.

Another interesting thing I have learned is that just short of 90% of the population thinks they are in the 15%. So, this brings me to the question at the title of this collection of thoughts: What makes you think you know what you think you know? If you are like me, you have a diverse and often extreme collection of “friends” on social networking platforms. And if you are like me, you will see them post on topics ranging from …. well… everything. But how many of the posters are qualified to give an informed opinion on their topics of choice?

Let’s consider medical and scientific posts. Most people like to think that their opinion, is just as good as anyone else’s. But is it? When was their last formal scientific education? For most people the answer is high school. Ok formal schooling isn’t the only way to learn. So what journals are they reading? Typically, here the answer is none. So, where does their expertise come from?

Consider a woman I met years ago. On our first (and only) date, she mentioned the weapons of mass destruction Bush found in Iraq. She was insistent. So, the hostess brought me a tumbler of whiskey and we dove down on how she knew this. I will spare you the full discussion, but in the end, we figured out she was talking about an episode NCIS. In some ways, this is akin to the CSI effect. People see things represented on TV and social media, and they think they know. But why did she believe it was real?

One might think that she was just an idiot. But she wasn’t. At least I don’t think she was. She seemed to be at least average or above average intelligence; at least in her own areas of expertise. So, where was the disconnect? Perhaps she suffered from a flawed and inflated metacognitive assessment of self. I think many people do.

In addition to the “you are the perfect you” over validation that people get from social media, there are some very real things about the way the brain functions that leads honest people in the wrong direction. Start with the Lake Wobegon Effect, an overestimation of one’s knowledge and capabilities. It is the tendency of a person to see themselves as better than others. It may be the person who thinks they’re funnier or better looking than everyone else does; or simply the person who thinks they’re smarter than they are. For many reasons, this effect is more prevalent where there is the greatest economic disparity. In the United States economic disparity is growing and increasingly thrust in the public view.

Then we have the Dunning–Kruger Effect, where under-skilled people overestimate their actual ability. It is suggested that this overestimation is due to a combination of facts including: 1. People tend to make poor decisions when they don’t have the necessary knowledge or experience. 2. Once the poor decision is made, the individual doesn’t have the knowledge or experience to know it was a poor decision.    

The next piece of the puzzle come from brain scans taken of people during the process of decision making. When people have experience and knowledge, the memory center of the brain are active. When the don’t the pleasure/reward center is active.

So, put this all together. 1. The general population is under educated and does not have the background knowledge to really understand the complex issues. 2. They have been told they are just is good, smart etc. as anyone else. 3. They believe they are better than they are. 4. They don’t have the knowledge or experience to realize they are wrong. 5. They are seeking reward for being right. 6. They guess, drawing on possible answers provided by social and entertainment media. 7. If, they conclude that answer that will give them the approval of a desired social sub-group they are rewarded. 8. They have been “proven” right and gain acceptance of the group. 9. This now becomes the basis for future decisions. The guess has become fact and is the filter by which the topic is assessed in the future.

Then we get to crossing the murder line. The more serious the results of decision the less likely it is that a person will be able to reverse their decision. But that is a discussion for another day.

The above is based on several years of study and experimentation. It is of course the opinion of one man, and it is admittedly a substantially oversimplified presentation. But I offer it none the less to explain my question. Why do you think you know what you think you know?

Was it a validated guess? Was it someone else’s opinion that you just accepted? Is your only source of information social and commercial media? Do you really have the proper education understand? Are you current on the latest science from peer reviewed sources? Is your decision really from a deep logically determined conclusion? Why do you think you know what you think you know?

© 2020 Charles A. Steele